ebet

项目承担: 北京棉花展望信息咨询有限责任公司

监测对象: 18个主要棉花生产、消费省的100家棉纺织企业

ebet10yue，guoneixinguanbingduyijinrufangkongchangtaihua,guoqingjiaqizhihouguoneixinmianjinrushougougaofengqi，zimianshougoujiageshangzhangfudujiaoda，xinmianjiagongchengbenjiagezougao，mianhuaxianhuojiagedafushangzhang。fangzhixingyechuyu“jinjiuyinshi”dechuantongwangji，xingyeyousuohuinuan，fangqiduiyuanliaoxuqiuzengjia，chengpinshaxianyijizhanjiaohehuaxiandengchanpinyejunyoubutongchengdushangzhang。tongqi，guojiqixian、huomianjiashangzhang，danzhangfudiyuguoneimianhuaxianhuo，neiwaimianjiachakuoda。

一、国内外现货价格变化情况

1、国内现货价格大幅上涨

10yue，guoneixinmianjizhongshangshi，shougoujiagegaoyuquniantongqi，shoufangzhiqiyechuantongwangjiyijifangzhidingdanhekaijilvzhuanhaodengyingxiang，fangzhiqiyeduiyuanliaoxuqiuzengjia，caigouliangdafuzengjia，guoneimianhuaxianhuojiagedafushangzhang。yuemo，zhongguomianhuajiagezhishu（ccindex3128b）14599yuan/dun，jiaoshangyuemoshangzhang1708yuan；yuejunjiawei13953yuan/dun，huanbishangzhang1156yuan，tongbishangzhang1230yuan。

2、长绒棉价格大幅上涨

ebet10yue，guoneimianhuaxianhuojiagejixushangzhang，shoufangzhixingyexuqiuzengjiayijixirongmianjiageyingxiang，zhangrongmianjiagedafushangzhang。yuemo137jichengjiaojia21700yuan/dun，jiaoshangyueshangzhang1500yuan/dun，gaoyutongqizhongguomianhuajiagezhishubiaozhun（ccindex3128b）7101yuan/dun，zheiyijiachajiaoqianyiyuemosuoxiao208yuan。

3、国际棉价先涨后跌 内外棉价差扩大 

10yue，oumeiyiqingercibaofa，guojimianjiayueneixianzhanghoudie，neiwaimianjiachayiranjiaoda。zhongguojinkoumianjiagezhishufc index myuejunwei76.47meifen/bang，huanbizhang5.13meifen。yuemowei76.95meifen/bang，gaoyuqianyiyuemo5.53meifen/bang，1%guanshuixiazherenminbi12867yuan/dun，diyuyutongqiguoneixianhuo1723yuan/dun，neiwaimianjiachajiaoshangyuemokuoda1022yuan。

4、纺织旺季产销形势好转  棉纱等价格大幅上涨

ebet10yue，fangzhishichangchuyuchuantongwangji，shichangxingqingjiaoshangyuejinyibuhaozhuan，guoneiwaidingdanjunyousuozengjia，xingyexinxintisheng。shouguowaiyiqingchixu、zhongmeiguanxibuquedingxingdengyinsuyingxiang,guoneifangzhichukouxingshixiangbiwangnianwangjilvecha。benyuechumianshashichanghuobaoshangzhang，maoyishangdedinghuojijixingjijia。yuenei，guoneishaxianhejinkoushaxianxiaoshouhaozhuan，jiagedafudushangzhang，qieyibijinwangniantongqi。jutikan，chunmianshakc32shejingshujc40syuemochengjiaojiawei22400yuan/dunhe25700yuan/dun，jiaoshangyuemojunshangzhang3870yuan/dun；dilunduanxianyuemowei5650yuan/dun，jiaoshangyuemoshangzhang400yuan，zhanjiaoduanxianyuemowei10400yuan/dun，jiaoshangyuemoshangzhang1800yuan。

二、影响国内外价格变化的要素分析

1、储备棉轮入政策发布

10yue21ri，guojialiangshihewuzichubeijuzhonghuarenmingongheguocaizhengbufabuchubeimianlunrugonggao，lunrushijianzai 2020nian12yue1rizhi2021nian3yue31rideguojiafadinggongzuoriqijian，lunruzongliang50 wandunzuoyou，meiriguapaijingmai 7000 dunzuoyou。lunrujiagehaishianzhaolunrujingmai zuigaoxianjia（daokujiage）suixingjiushidongtaiqueding，yuanzeshangyuguoneimianhuaxianhuojiageguagouliandongbingshangfuyidingbili，meizhoudiaozhengyici。lunruqijian，dangneiwaimianjiachalianxu 3 gegongzuorichaoguo 800 yuan/dunshi，zantingjiaoyi；dangneiwaimianjiachahuiluodao 800 yuan/dunyineishi，zhongxinqidongjiaoyi。

2、郑期月内大幅上涨，注册仓单大幅减少

ebet10yue,guoqingjiaqizhihouzhengmianqihuoyuezhonglianxuchonggaoshouzhang，yuexiaxunzhujianxiaofuzhendanghuiluo,yuemoshoudie，cangdanliangjiaoshangyuedafujianshao。zhuliheyuecf101yuemojiesuanjia14455yuan/dun，jiaoshangmode12800yuan/dunshangzhang1655yuan/dun，zhangfu12.93%。yuemozhucangdan4441zhang，zhe17.76wandun，jiaoshangyuemojianshao17.12wandun。

3、新棉加工量大幅增加 籽棉收购价格上涨

jiezhi10yuedi，quanguo851jia400xingmianhuajiagongqiyejiagongzongliangyuewei186.91wandun，tongbizengjia20.83%，qizhongxinjiangpimianleijijiagongliang184.76wandun，tongbizengjia21%；neidijiazongliang2.14wandun，tongbizengjia2.39%，xinmianjiagongjindujiakuai，shangshishijiantiqian。quanguozimianshougoujiagezaiguoqingjiehoudelianxushangzhanghou，yuemozhujianhuiwen，pingjunshougoujiage6.51yuan/gongjin，tongbishangzhang21.23%。

4、纺企处于传统旺季 原料需求增加

10yue，fangzhiqiyejinruchuantongwangji，zaishuangshiyi、shuangshierdengxianshanggouwujiejibufenchukoudingdanzhuanyidedaidongxia，fangzhiqiyedingdanzengjia，kaijilvchuyugaowei，yixieyuanliaokucunjiaodideqiyekaishiluxubuku，neiwaimianshajiagejunyousuoshangzhang，xingyezhubuhuinuan。