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农业农村部: 2020年8月大宗农产品供需形势分析月报(涉棉部分)

出处: 农业农村部    2020年09月24日

【BENYUETEDIAN】GUONEIMIANJIAWENBUSHANGZHANG,GUOJIMIANJIAZHENDANGSHANGXING

DANWEI: YUAN/DUN,%

图片.png

注: 国内价格为中国棉花价格指数(CC Index)3128B级棉花销售价格,国际价格为进口棉价格指数(FC Index)M级棉花到岸税后价(滑准税下)。

【后期走势】国内市场,在经济持续回稳向好的支撑下,棉花市场整体将延续上行趋势。国际市场,在美棉出口签约增加和灾害性天气扰动的影响下,国际棉价整体仍将震荡上行。

【详情】

(一)国内棉价稳步上涨。

GUONEIJINGJIYUNXINGCHIXUWENDINGFUSU,GUONEIMIANJIAWENBUSHANGXING。JUGUOJIATONGJIJUSHUJU,8YUEFENZHONGGUOZHIZAOYECAIGOUJINGLIZHISHU(PMI)WEI51.0%,LIANXUDI6GEYUEWEIYURONGKUXIANYISHANG,BIAOMINGJINGJIHUIWENXIANGHAOTAISHIDEDAOGONGGU。8YUEFEN,GUONEI3128BJIMIANHUAYUEJUNJIAMEIDUN12476YUAN,HUANBIZHANG2.7%,TONGBIDIE7.8%。ZHENGMIANQIHUOZHULIHEYUE(CF009)YUEJIESUANJIAMEIDUN12282YUAN,HUANBIZHANG2.3%,TONGBIDIE1.7%。(ER)GUOJIMIANJIAZHENDANGSHANGXING。BENYUECHU,SHOUGUOJIYUANYOUJIAGEZOUGAODENGYINSUZHICHENG,GUOJIMIANJIAXIAOFUSHANGSHENG。SUIHOU,MEIGUONONGYEBUDIAOZENG2020/21NIANDUMEIGUOJIQUANQIUMIANHUAGONGJILIANG,DIAOJIANXIAOFEILIANG,QUANQIUMIANHUACHENGGONGYINGKUANSONGTAISHI,GUOJIMIANJIACHENGYAHUILUO。ZHONGXIAXUN,MEIMIANCHUKOUQIANYUELIANGZENGJIA,DIEJIAZHONGMEITONGYIJIXUTUIDONGDIYIJIEDUANJINGMAOXIEYILUOSHIDETIZHEN,GUOJIMIANJIAFANDANSHANGXING。8YUEFEN,Cotlook AZHISHU(XIANGDANGYUGUONEI3128BJIMIANHUA)YUEJUNJIAMEIBANG69.94MEIFEN,HUANBIZHANG1.4%,TONGBIDIE1.2%。

(SAN)NEIWAIMIANJIACHAKUODA。CotlookAZHISHU(XIANGDANGYUGUONEI3128B JIMIANHUA)ZHEHERENMINBIMEIDUN10791YUAN,BIZHONGGUOMIANHUAJIAGEZHISHU(CC Index)3128BJIMEIDUNDI1685YUAN,JIACHABISHANGYUEKUODA315YUAN。JINKOUMIANJIAGEZHISHU(FC Index)MJI(XIANGDANGYUGUONEI3128BJIMIANHUA)YUEJUNJIAMEIBANG70.14MEIFEN,1%GUANSHUIXIAZHEDAOANSHUIHOUJIAMEIDUN12113YUAN,BIGUONEIJIAGEDI363YUAN,JIACHABISHANGYUEKUODA346YUAN;HUAZHUNSHUIXIAZHEDAOANSHUIHOUJIAMEIDUN13821YUAN,BIGUONEIJIAGEGAO1345YUAN,JIACHABISHANGYUESUOXIAO338YUAN。

(SI)7YUEFENMIANHUAJINKOUHUANBIZENG,TONGBIJIAN。JUHAIGUANTONGJI,7YUEFENebetGUOJINKOUMIANHUA14.83WANDUN,HUANBIZENG56.2%,TONGBIJIAN9.3%。

ebet1-7YUELEIJI,ebetGUOJINKOUMIANHUA120.43WANDUN,TONGBIJIAN10.3%。7YUEFEN,ebetGUOFANGZHIPINFUZHUANGCHUKOU312.94YIMEIYUAN,HUANBIZENG7.8%,TONGBIZENG13.7%。1-7YUELEIJI,ebetGUOFANGZHIPINFUZHUANGCHUKOUE1565.06YIMEIYUAN,TONGBIZENG6.7%。(WU)FANGSHALIANGHUANBIJIANSHAO,SHAXIANJIAGECHIXUXIADIE。JUGUOJIATONGJIJUSHUJU,7YUEFENebetGUOSHACHANLIANG223.9WANDUN,HUANBIJIAN4.4%。1-7YUELEIJI,ebetGUOSHACHANLIANGWEI1399.9WANDUN,TONGBIJIANG15.7%。JINRU8YUEFEN,NEIWAIXIAODINGDANYOUSUOZENGJIA,DANFANGZHISHICHANGZHENGTIYUNXINGRENGRANDIMI,QIYECHUYUJIANGJIAQUKUCUNJIEDUAN,SHAXIANJIAGECHIXUZOUDI。JU《ZHONGGUOMIANHUAGONGYEKUCUNDIAOCHABAOGAO》SHUJU,8YUECHUQIYESHACHANXIAOLVWEI90.5%,TONGBIXIAJIANG2.1GEBAIFENDIAN,BUCHANXIAOLVWEI88.2%,TONGBIXIAJIANG1.2GEBAIFENDIAN。8YUEFEN,ZHUYAODAIBIAOPINZHONG32ZHICHUNMIANPUSHUSHAXIANJUNJIAMEIDUN18517YUAN,HUANBIDIE0.5%,TONGBIDIE10.3%。

(LIU)QUANQIUMIANHUACHANLIANGDIAOJIAN,XIAOFEILIANGDIAOZENG。GUOJIMIANHUAZIXUNWEIYUANHUI(ICAC)8YUEYUCE,2020/21NIANDUQUANQIUMIANHUACHANLIANGWEI2477WANDUN,JIAOSHANGYUEDIAOJIAN9WANDUN,XIAOFEILIANGWEI2385WANDUN,JIAOSHANGYUEDIAOZENG54WANDUN,MAOYILIANGWEI907WANDUN,JIAOSHANGYUEDIAOZENG45WANDUN,QUANQIUMIANHUAQIMOKUCUNDIAOJIANZHI2288WANDUN,QUANQIUMIANHUAKUCUNXIAOFEIBIWEI96%,CHUZHONGGUOYIWAIDEKUCUNXIAOFEIBIWEI87%,JIAOSHANGYUEDIAODI10GEBAIFENDIAN,DANRENGCHUYUJINWUNIANDEJIAOGAOSHUIPING。

(七)预计国内外棉价短期内震荡上行。

ebetGUONEISHICHANG,XINMIANBOZHONGYILAI,QUANGUOMIANQUZONGHEQIHOUJIAOSHIYIMIANHUASHENGZHANG,QIZHONGXINJIANG、HUANGHELIUYUMIANQUDABUTIANQIMINGXIANHAOYUSHANGNIANTONGQI,WEIXINNIANDUMIANHUAZENGCHANDAXIALIANGHAOJICHU,YUJI2020/21NIANDUMIANHUASHENGCHANJIANGWENZHONGYOUZENG,YOULIYUXINJIUNIANDUMIANHUASHICHANGSHIXIANPINGWENGUODU。XINMIANGUIMOSHANGSHIQIAN,DUANQINEIMIANJIAHUOSHOUJIDUANTIANQI、BINGCHONGHAI、MAOYIHUANJINGDENGYINSUYINGXIANGERYOUSUOBODONG,DANZAIGUONEIJINGJICHIXUHUIWENXIANGHAODEZHICHENGXIA,SUIZHEXIAYOUCHUANTONG“JINJIUYINSHI”XINGYEWANGJIDEDAOLAI,FANGZHIPINFUZHUANGSHICHANGXIAOSHOUHEQIYENEIWAIXIAODINGDANYOUWANGJIXUHUIFU,MIANHUAXIAOFEIXUQIUJIANGJINYIBUTIZHEN,YUJIDUANQINEIMIANHUAXIANHUOJIAGEJIANGZAIMEIDUN12000-14000YUANQUJIANNEIZHENDANGSHANGXING。GUOJISHICHANG,BEIBANQIUGEZHUCHANGUOMIANHUAJIBENCHUYUSHENGZHANGHOUQI,ZONGTIZHANGSHIZHENGCHANG,MIANHUASHENGCHANGONGYINGYUQIJIAOWENDING。JUICACYUCE,2020/21NIANDUZAIQUANQIUJINGJIFUSUDEYISHIXIANDEQIANTIXIA,MIANHUAXIAOFEIJIANGZHUBUHUIFU,DANKUCUNRENGCHUYU2200WANDUNYISHANGDEGAOWEI,QUANQIUMIANHUAGONGXUGUANXIJIXUBAOCHIKUANSONGGEJU。ZAIMEIMIANCHUKOUQIANYUEZENGJIAHEGECHANQUZAIHAIXINGTIANQIRAODONGDEYINGXIANGXIA,YUJIGUOJIMIANJIAZHENGTIJIANGRENGZAIMEIBANG60-75MEIFENDEQUJIANHUANMANSHANGXING,DANXUYAOGAODUGUANZHUFUZADEGUOJIJINGJIZHENGZHIHUANJINGHEQUANQIUYIQINGZOUXIANGDAILAIDEMIANJIADUANQIBODONGJIAJUFENGXIAN。


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