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产量稳 进口增 储备棉轮出全部成交——中国棉花形势月报(2020年7月)

出处: 中国棉花协会    2020年08月31日

7YUE,GUOMINJINGJIJIXUWENDINGHUIFU,MIANHUAMIANJISUIYOUSUOXIAJIANG,DANCHANLIANGWENZHONGYOUZENG。JUZHONGGUOMIANHUAXIEHUIDIAOCHA,2020/21NIANDUQUANGUOZHIMIANMIANJIWEI4596.95WANMU,TONGBIXIAJIANG4.5%,YUJIZONGCHANLIANGWEI591.9WANDUN,TONGBIZENGZHANG0.2%。CHUBEIMIANSHIYINGSHICHANGXUQIU,LUNCHUQUANBUCHENGJIAO,XINJIANGYIQINGYINGXIANGJIANGMIANWAIYUN,GUONEIXIANHUOJIAGESHANGZHANG。FANGZHISHICHANGCHUZAIDANJI,YUANLIAOWEICHIDIKUCUN,MIANHUASHANGYEKUCUNJIANGFUSHOUZHAI。MIANHUAJINKOUCHIXUZENGZHANG,MEIMIANZHANBIDASANFENZHIER。JUZHONGGUOMIANHUAXIEHUIYUCE,2019NIANDUebetGUOMIANHUAJINKOULIANGWEI158WANDUN,JIAOSHANGQIXIADIAO4WANDUN,QIMOKUCUNDIAOZHENGWEI788WANDUN

一、全国棉花面积下降、产量稳中略增

7YUE,QUANGUODABUMIANQUQIXIANGTIAOJIANJIAOSHIYIMIANHUASHENGZHANG,BINGCHONGHAIFASHENGCHENGDUJIAOQING,XINJIANGHEHUANGHELIUYUMIANHUAZHANGSHIJIBENWENDING,DANCHANJUNYOUSUOZENGJIA,ZHANGJIANGLIUYUSHOUYANZHONGZILAOZAIHAIYINGXIANG,ZHIMIANMIANJI、CHANLIANGJUNJIANSHAO。JUZHONGGUOMIANHUAXIEHUIYUCE,XINJIANGMIANHUAMIANJIWEI3665.5WANMU,TONGBIXIAJIANG0.59%,CHANLIANGWEI524WANDUN,TONGBIZENGZHANG4.1%;HUANGHELIUYUMIANHUAMIANJIWEI496.87WANMU,TONGBIXIAJIANG16%,CHANLIANGWEI40WANDUN,TONGBIXIAJIANG13.6%;ZHANGJIANGLIUYUMIANJIWEI398WANMU,CHANLIANGJINWEI24WANDUN,TONGBIXIAJIANG35%。

二、国内棉价上涨 国外波动频繁

ebet7YUE,CHUBEIMIANLUNCHUQUANBUCHENGJIAO,XINJIANGYIQINGYINGXIANGJIANGMIANWAIYUN,GUONEIMIANJIAJIXUSHANGZHANG;GUOWAIYIQINGCHIXU,MEIGUOMIANQUHANQINGYOUSUOFAZHAN,ZHONGMEIMAODUNZAIDUSHENGJI,SHOUDUOZHONGYINSUYINGXIANG,GUOJIMIANJIABODONGPINFAN。YUEMO,ZHONGGUOMIANHUAJIAGEZHISHU(CCIndex3128B)12319YUAN/DUN,JIAOSHANGYUEMOSHANGZHANG453YUAN;YUEJUNJIAWEI12156YUAN/DUN,HUANBISHANGZHANG198YUAN,TONGBIXIADIE1994YUAN。ZHONGGUOJINKOUMIANJIAGEZHISHUFC Index MYUEJUNWEI69.6MEIFEN/BANG,HUANBIZHANG1.29MEIFEN。YUEMOWEI69.62MEIFEN/BANG,GAOYUQIANYIYUEMO1.87MEIFEN/BANG,1%GUANSHUIXIAZHERENMINBI12176YUAN/DUN,DIYUTONGQIGUONEIXIANHUO143YUAN,NEIWAIMIANJIACHAJIAOSHANGYUEMOKUODA145YUAN。

三、棉花进口持续增长,美棉占比最高

ebet7YUE,JUHAIGUANZONGSHUSHUJUXIANSHI,ebetGUOMIANHUAJINKOULIANGWEI14.83WANDUN,HUANBIZENGZHANG64.3%,TONGBIXIAJIANG9.4%。LAIYUANGUOZHONGMEIGUOZUIDUO,ZHANBIWEI66%,YINDU、BAXIHEAODALIYAFENBIEZHANBIWEI11%、7%HE6%。FENMAOYIFANGSHIKAN,YIBANMAOYIZUIDUO,CHAOGUOLIUCHENG,HAIGUANTESHUJIANGUANQUYUWULIUHUOWUJIEJINSANCHENG,BAOSHUIJIANGUANCHANGSUOJINCHUJINGHUOWUHEJINLIAOJIAGONGJUNBUZUYICHENG。2020NIANQIAN7GEYUEebetGUOGONGJINKOUMIANHUA104.66WANDUN,TONGBIXIAJIANG22.0%。

四、商业库存降幅减缓

FANGZHIXIAYOUSHICHANGXUQIUJIAORUO,FANGZHIYUANLIAOJIAGEYOUSUOSHANGZHANG,CHUBEIMIANSHOUFANGQIQINGLAI,MIANHUASHANGYEKUCUNXIAJIANGFUDUSHOUZHAI。YUEDI,QUANGUOMIANHUASHANGYEKUCUNZONGLIANGYUE286.41WANDUN,HUANBIXIAJIANG11.57%,TONGBIXIAJIANG0.83%。SHOUYIQINGYINGXIANG,CHUJIANGMIANFAYUNLIANGJIXUXIAJIANG,JUTONGJI,XINJIANGMIANHUAZHUANYECANGCHUKUCHUJIANGFAYUNLIANGWEI24.76WANDUN,HUANBIJIANSHAO6.28WANDUN,TONGBIJIANSHAO3.29WANDUN。

五、原料维持低库存,纺织品出口继续增长

FANGZHISHICHANGRENGCHUYUDANJI,SHAXIANXIAOSHOUHUANMAN,KAIJILVWEICHIDIWEI,FANGZHIPINCHANLIANGLVEYOUHUISHENG。SHAXIANCHANLIANGHUANBISHANGSHENG1.3%,TONGBIXIAJIANG8.1%;BUCHANLIANGHUANBISHANGSHENG1.2%,TONGBIXIAJIANG7.8%。FANGZHIQIYEZIJINYALIDA,XUQIUBUZHEN,YUANLIAOKUCUNWEICHIDIWEI,7YUEDI,FANGZHIQIYEMIANHUAKUCUNLIANGWEI62.95WANDUN,JIAOSHANGYUEDIXIAJIANG2.88WANDUN,TONGBIJIANSHAO7.6WANDUN。

ebet7YUE,GUONEIJINGJIWENDINGHUIFU,ebetGUOWAIMAOCHUKOUJIXUBAOCHIZHENGZENGZHANG。JUHAIGUANSHUJUXIANSHI: ebetGUOFANGZHIFUZHUANGCHUKOU312.9YIMEIYUAN,TONGBIZENGZHANG13.74%,QIZHONGFANGZHISHAXIAN、ZHIWUJIZHIPINCHUKOU159.8YIMEIYUAN,ZENGZHANG48.38%;FUZHUANGCHUKOU153.2YIMEIYUAN,XIAJIANG8.54%。1-7YUEFANGZHIPINFUZHUANGLEIJICHUKOU1564.8YIMEIYUAN,TONGBIZENGZHANG5.57%,JIAOSHANGQIHUISHENG2.4GEBAIFENDIAN,QIZHONGFANGZHISHAXIAN、ZHIWUJIZHIPINCHUKOU900.8YIMEIYUAN,TONGBIZENGZHANG31.3%,JIAOSHANGQIHUISHENG3.5GEBAIFENDIAN,FUZHUANGJIYIZHEFUJIANCHUKOU664YIMEIYUAN,TONGBIXIAJIANG16.6%,JIANGFUJIAOSHANGQISHOUZHAI2.8GEBAIFENDIAN。

中国棉花供求平衡表(2020年8月)

                                  DANWEI: WANDUN

年度

期初库存

产量

进口

消费

出口

期末库存

2019/20

807.51

590.57

158

765

3

788.08

2018/19

802.6

611

205

807

4.1

807.51

2017/18

924.1

604.7

132.4

855

3.59

802.61


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