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产量稳 进口增 储备棉轮出全部成交——中国棉花形势月报(2020年7月)

出处: 中国棉花协会    2020年08月31日

7yue,guominjingjijixuwendinghuifu,mianhuamianjisuiyousuoxiajiang,danchanliangwenzhongyouzeng。juzhongguomianhuaxiehuidiaocha,2020/21nianduquanguozhimianmianjiwei4596.95wanmu,tongbixiajiang4.5%,yujizongchanliangwei591.9wandun,tongbizengzhang0.2%。chubeimianshiyingshichangxuqiu,lunchuquanbuchengjiao,xinjiangyiqingyingxiangjiangmianwaiyun,guoneixianhuojiageshangzhang。fangzhishichangchuzaidanji,yuanliaoweichidikucun,mianhuashangyekucunjiangfushouzhai。mianhuajinkouchixuzengzhang,meimianzhanbidasanfenzhier。juzhongguomianhuaxiehuiyuce,2019nianduebetguomianhuajinkouliangwei158wandun,jiaoshangqixiadiao4wandun,qimokucundiaozhengwei788wandun

一、全国棉花面积下降、产量稳中略增

ebet7yue,quanguodabumianquqixiangtiaojianjiaoshiyimianhuashengzhang,bingchonghaifashengchengdujiaoqing,xinjianghehuangheliuyumianhuazhangshijibenwending,danchanjunyousuozengjia,zhangjiangliuyushouyanzhongzilaozaihaiyingxiang,zhimianmianji、chanliangjunjianshao。juzhongguomianhuaxiehuiyuce,xinjiangmianhuamianjiwei3665.5wanmu,tongbixiajiang0.59%,chanliangwei524wandun,tongbizengzhang4.1%;huangheliuyumianhuamianjiwei496.87wanmu,tongbixiajiang16%,chanliangwei40wandun,tongbixiajiang13.6%;zhangjiangliuyumianjiwei398wanmu,chanliangjinwei24wandun,tongbixiajiang35%。

二、国内棉价上涨 国外波动频繁

ebet7yue,chubeimianlunchuquanbuchengjiao,xinjiangyiqingyingxiangjiangmianwaiyun,guoneimianjiajixushangzhang;guowaiyiqingchixu,meiguomianquhanqingyousuofazhan,zhongmeimaodunzaidushengji,shouduozhongyinsuyingxiang,guojimianjiabodongpinfan。yuemo,zhongguomianhuajiagezhishu(ccindex3128b)12319yuan/dun,jiaoshangyuemoshangzhang453yuan;yuejunjiawei12156yuan/dun,huanbishangzhang198yuan,tongbixiadie1994yuan。zhongguojinkoumianjiagezhishufc index myuejunwei69.6meifen/bang,huanbizhang1.29meifen。yuemowei69.62meifen/bang,gaoyuqianyiyuemo1.87meifen/bang,1%guanshuixiazherenminbi12176yuan/dun,diyutongqiguoneixianhuo143yuan,neiwaimianjiachajiaoshangyuemokuoda145yuan。

三、棉花进口持续增长,美棉占比最高

ebet7yue,juhaiguanzongshushujuxianshi,ebetguomianhuajinkouliangwei14.83wandun,huanbizengzhang64.3%,tongbixiajiang9.4%。laiyuanguozhongmeiguozuiduo,zhanbiwei66%,yindu、baxiheaodaliyafenbiezhanbiwei11%、7%he6%。fenmaoyifangshikan,yibanmaoyizuiduo,chaoguoliucheng,haiguanteshujianguanquyuwuliuhuowujiejinsancheng,baoshuijianguanchangsuojinchujinghuowuhejinliaojiagongjunbuzuyicheng。2020nianqian7geyueebetguogongjinkoumianhua104.66wandun,tongbixiajiang22.0%。

四、商业库存降幅减缓

fangzhixiayoushichangxuqiujiaoruo,fangzhiyuanliaojiageyousuoshangzhang,chubeimianshoufangqiqinglai,mianhuashangyekucunxiajiangfudushouzhai。yuedi,quanguomianhuashangyekucunzongliangyue286.41wandun,huanbixiajiang11.57%,tongbixiajiang0.83%。shouyiqingyingxiang,chujiangmianfayunliangjixuxiajiang,jutongji,xinjiangmianhuazhuanyecangchukuchujiangfayunliangwei24.76wandun,huanbijianshao6.28wandun,tongbijianshao3.29wandun。

五、原料维持低库存,纺织品出口继续增长

fangzhishichangrengchuyudanji,shaxianxiaoshouhuanman,kaijilvweichidiwei,fangzhipinchanlianglveyouhuisheng。shaxianchanlianghuanbishangsheng1.3%,tongbixiajiang8.1%;buchanlianghuanbishangsheng1.2%,tongbixiajiang7.8%。fangzhiqiyezijinyalida,xuqiubuzhen,yuanliaokucunweichidiwei,7yuedi,fangzhiqiyemianhuakucunliangwei62.95wandun,jiaoshangyuedixiajiang2.88wandun,tongbijianshao7.6wandun。

ebet7yue,guoneijingjiwendinghuifu,ebetguowaimaochukoujixubaochizhengzengzhang。juhaiguanshujuxianshi: ebetguofangzhifuzhuangchukou312.9yimeiyuan,tongbizengzhang13.74%,qizhongfangzhishaxian、zhiwujizhipinchukou159.8yimeiyuan,zengzhang48.38%;fuzhuangchukou153.2yimeiyuan,xiajiang8.54%。1-7yuefangzhipinfuzhuangleijichukou1564.8yimeiyuan,tongbizengzhang5.57%,jiaoshangqihuisheng2.4gebaifendian,qizhongfangzhishaxian、zhiwujizhipinchukou900.8yimeiyuan,tongbizengzhang31.3%,jiaoshangqihuisheng3.5gebaifendian,fuzhuangjiyizhefujianchukou664yimeiyuan,tongbixiajiang16.6%,jiangfujiaoshangqishouzhai2.8gebaifendian。

中国棉花供求平衡表(2020年8月)

                                  danwei: wandun

年度

期初库存

产量

进口

消费

出口

期末库存

2019/20

807.51

590.57

158

765

3

788.08

2018/19

802.6

611

205

807

4.1

807.51

2017/18

924.1

604.7

132.4

855

3.59

802.61


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