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全国总产略有下降 储备棉轮出政策发布——中国棉花形势月报(2020年6月)

出处: 中国棉花协会    2020年07月20日

ebet6yue,quanguoqixiangtiaojianjiaoshiyimianhuashengzhang,juzhongguomianhuaxiehuidiaocha,2020/21nianduquanguomianhuayujidanchantongbilvezeng,zongchanliangyuewei576.5wandun,tongbijianshao2.4%。shangbannianebetguojingjixianjianghousheng,erjidujingjizengzhangyoufuzhuanzheng,zhuyaozhibiaohuifuxingzengzhang,jingjiyunxingwenbufusu,guoneiwaimianjiajunyousuoshangzhang。5yuezhi6yueshangxun,fangzhixingyeyousuohuifu,zhongxiaxunhou,fangzhipinshichangjinruchuantongdanji,waimaodingdanbuzu,chanlianglveyouxiajiang,yuanliaoxuqiuweichiruoshi,shangyekucunjixuxiajiang,yidiyuquniantongqi。juzhongguomianhuaxiehuiyuce,2019nianduebetguomianhuajinkouliangjiangyousuoxiajiang,wei154wandun,jiaoshangqixiadiao24wandun,qimokucundiaozhengwei784wandun。

一、2020/21年度全国预计总产略有下降

6月调查情况显示,全国植棉面积为4615.63万亩,同比减少4.15%,预计单产同比略增,总产量约为576.5万吨,同比减少2.4%。全国大部棉区气象条件较适宜棉苗生长,截止到6月30日,全国棉花现蕾率97.53%,高于去年同期3个百分点,病虫害发生程度较轻。其中,病害较轻的占78.80%,同比高15.78个百分点;虫害较轻的占67.33%,同比高1.77个百分点;长势较好占47.80%,同比高37.17个百分点。

二、内外棉价格均上涨,国外高于国内

6yue,ebetguojingjiyunxingpingwen,yuedi2020nianzhongyangchubeimianlunchuzhengcefabu,danfangzhishichangjinruchuantongdan,xianhuochengjiaofanghuan,mianjialveyoushangzhang;shouguowaibufenguojiayiqingfandan、meiguonongyebu(usda)fabu2020/21niandumeiguomianhuashibomianjijianshao11.3%dengduoyinsuyingxiang,guojimianjiapinfanbodong,jiagegaoyuguonei。yuemo,zhongguomianhuajiagezhishu(ccindex3128b)11866yuan/dun,jiaoshangyuemoshangzhang57yuan;yuejunjiawei11958yuan/dun,huanbishangzhang314yuan,tongbixiadie2189yuan。zhongguojinkoumianjiagezhishufc index myuejunwei68.34meifen/bang,huanbizhang0.56meifen。yuemowei67.84meifen/bang,gaoyuqianyiyuemo1.58meifen/bang,1%guanshuixiazherenminbi11883yuan/dun,gaoyutongqiguoneixianhuo17yuan,neiwaimianjiadaogua。

三、商业库存低于去年同期

ebet6yueshangxunfangzhiqiyecaigoujiji,zhongxiaxunjinrufangzhidanji,qiyequyujinshen。yuedi,quanguomianhuashangyekucunzongliangyue323.89wandun,huanbixiajiang14.17%,tongbixiajiang3%。chujiangmianfayunliangdafuxiajiang,jutongji,xinjiangmianhuazhuanyecangchukuchujiangfayunliangwei31.04wandun,huanbijianshao28.19wandun,dangaoyuquniantongqi12.77wandun。

四、原料需求平淡,纺织品出口持续增长

ebetbenyuefangzhishichangwaixujiaoruo、neixubuzhen,qiyejingyingkunnan,bufentinggongfangjia,fangzhipinchanliangjixuxiajiang。qizhong,shaxianchanlianghuanbixiajiang1.5%,tongbixiajiang7.3%;buchanlianghuanbixiajiang1.5%,tongbixiajiang8.4%。qiyedadanjiaoshao,yuanliaosuiyongsuimai,jiezhi6yuedi,fangzhiqiyemianhuakucunliangwei65.83wandun,jiaoshangyuedixiajiang2.12wandun,tongbijianshao2.97wandun。

ebetshangbannianwaimaojinchukouhaoyuyuqi,6yuefendangyuechukouzongzhizengzhang0.3%(meiyuanzhi),qizhongbaokuokouzhaozaineidefangzhipinchukoujixudafuzengzhang,juhaiguanshujuxianshi: ebetguofangzhifuzhuangchukou290.31yimeiyuan,tongbizengzhang17.79%,qizhongfangzhishaxian、zhiwujizhipinchukou161.57yimeiyuan,zengzhang56.72%;fuzhuangchukou128.75yimeiyuan,xiajiang10.20%。1-6yuefangzhipinfuzhuangleijichukou1251.88yimeiyuan,tongbizengzhang3.20%,jiaoshangqihuisheng4.4gebaifendian,qizhongfangzhishaxian、zhiwujizhipinchukou741.03yimeiyuan,tongbizengzhang27.8%,jiaoshangqihuisheng6.5gebaifendian,fuzhuangjiyizhefujianchukou510.84yimeiyuan,tongbixiajiang19.4%,jiangfujiaoshangqishouzhai3.4gebaifendian。

五、储备棉计划轮出50万吨

6yue30ri,youguanbumengongbule2020nianzhongyangchubeimianlunchuzhengce: (yi)lunchushijian: 2020nian7yue1rizhi2020nian9yue30riqijiandeguojiafadinggongzuori。(er)shuliang: zonglianganpai50wandunzuoyou。shixingjunhengtoufang,yuanzeshangmeigongzuoriguapaixiaoshou0.8wandunzuoyou。(san)jiage。guapaixiaoshoudijiasuixingjiushidongtaiqueding,yuanzeshangyuguoneiwaimianhuaxianhuojiageguagouliandong,youguoneishichangmianhuaxianhuojiagezhishuheguojishichangmianhuaxianhuojiagezhishugean50%dequanzhongjisuanqueding,meizhoudiaozhengyici。lunchuqijian,dangguoneishichangmianhuaxianhuojiagezhishudiyu11500 yuan/dunshi,xiagegongzuoriqizantingjiaoyi;dangguoneishichangmianhuaxianhuojiagezhishulianxusangegongzuorichaoguo11500yuan/dunshi,xiagegongzuorizhongxinqidongjiaoyi。

 

中国棉花供求平衡表(20207月)单位: 万吨

年度

期初库存

产量

进口

消费

出口

期末库存

2019/20

807.51

590.57

154

765

3

784.08

2018/19

802.6

611

205

807

4.1

807.51

2017/18

924.1

604.7

132.4

855

3.59

802.61

 


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