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棉花需求不振 内外棉价下跌——中国棉花形势月报(2020年3月)

出处: 中国棉花协会    2020年04月24日

ebet   3yue,guoneiyiqingzhuanhao,qiyeluxufugongfuchan,danguojiyiqingkuosandaozhiwaimaodingdanquxiaojiaoduo,mianhuaxiaofeixuqiubuzhen。juzhongguomianhuaxiehuiyuce,guoneimianhuaxiaofeiliangwei765wandun,tongbixiajiang5.2%,jiaoshangqijianshao17wandun,jinkouliang198wandun,tongbixiajiang3.4%,jiaoshangqizengjia10wandun。benyue,guoneiwaimianjiadafuxiadie,guojimianjiadiefugaoyuguonei;2019nianduchubeimianlunrujieshu,shijichengjiaoliang37.16wandun;3yuexiaxun,youguanbumengongbu2020nianqizaixinjiangwanshanmianhuamubiaojiagezhengce,shouciyingxiang,xinjiangzhimianyixiangmianjijiangfujixusuoxiao。

   一、植棉意向降幅缩小

   3yuedi,zhongguomianhuaxiehuijinxingledisici2020nianquanguozhimianyixiangmianjidiaocha,diaochajieguoweiquanguozhimianyixiangmianjiwei4618.26wanmu,tongbixiajiang4.10%,jiangfujiaoshangqisuoxiao0.93gebaifendian。qizhong: xinjiangzhimianyixiangmianjiwei3687.36wanmu,tongbixiajiang1.16%,jiangfujiaoshangqisuoxiao1.21gebaifendian;zhangjiangliuyuzhimianyixiangmianjiwei422.78wanmu,tongbixiajiang14.41%,jiangfujiaoshangqikuoda4.5gebaifendian;huangheliuyuzhimianyixiangmianjiwei511.78wanmu,tongbixiajiang13.52%,jiangfujiaoshangqikuoda2.5gebaifendian,youyumianhuashougoujiagebulixiang,gailiuyujin20%dezimianhaiweichushou。jiezhi3yuedi,quanguojiaoshoujindu98.61%,xinjiang、zhangjiangliuyujiaoshoujibenjieshu,huangheliuyujiaoshoujinduwei82.7%。

   二、国内外棉价下跌

   3yue,guoneiyiqingkongzhixianghao,guowaiyiqingkuosanmanyan,guojijinrongshichangdongdangjiaju,guoneiwaimianjiajunxiadie。yuemo,zhongguomianhuajiagezhishu(ccindex3128b)11091yuan/dun,jiaoshangyuemoxiadie1995yuan;yuejunjiawei12195yuan/dun,huanbixiadie1223yuan,tongbixiadie3385yuan。guojimianjiadafuxiadie,neiwaimianjiachajiaoshangyuesuoxiao。zhongguojinkoumianjiagezhishufc indexmyuejunwei69.34meifen/bang,huanbixiadie8.56meifen。yuemowei63.25meifen/bang,diyuqianyiyuemo9.8meifen/bang,1%guanshuixiazherenminbi10948yuan/dun,diyutongqiguoneixianhuo143yuan,jiachajiaoshangyuemosuoxiao537yuan。

   三、储备棉轮入结束,成交率47%

   3yuefenchubeimianlunrujihua31.6wandun,shijichengjiao20.75wandun,jiaoshanggeyuezengjia9.87wandun,chengjiaolv65.66%,jiaoshangyuezengjia10.13gebaifendian。pingjunchengjiaojiage 12644yuan/dun,jiao2yuefenjunjiaxiadie1072yuan/dun。3yue31ri,2019nianduchubeimianlunrujieshu,jihualunru50wandun,shijiguapaishuliang78.6wandun,shijichengjiaoliang37.16wandun,chengjiaolv47%。

   四、商业库存降幅扩大

   3yue,mianhuagouxiaoshichangzhujianhuifu,fangzhiqiyeyongmianxuqiuyousuohuisheng,danxiaofeirengruoyutongqi,yuemoshangyekucunjiangfujiaoshangyueyousuokuoda。3yuedi,quanguomianhuashangyekucunzongliangyue463.67wandun,huanbijiang6.76%,tongbizeng11.35%。suizheguoneifugongfuchanjindujiakuai,xinjiangmianchujiangfayunliangdafuhuisheng。jutongji,dangyuexinjiangmianhuazhuanyecangchukuchujiangfayunliangwei56.47wandun,huanbizengjia43.79wandun,gaoyuquniantongqi5.9wandun。

   五、纺织需求不旺,纺织品服装出口下降

   guoneiyiqingquwen,guojiyiqingjiasukuosan,waimaoxingfangzhiqiyeyingxiangjiaoda,fangzhipinchanlianghuanbishangsheng,dantongbirengxiajiang。qizhong,shaxianchanlianghuanbishangsheng43.3%,tongbixiajiang5.7%;buchanlianghuanbishangsheng41.3%,tongbixiajiang4.9%。qiyeyongmianxuqiubuwang,suiyongsuimai,yuanliaokucunyousuoxiajiang,jiezhi3yue31ri,fangzhiqiyemianhuakucunliangwei71.42wandun,jiaoshangyuedijianshao0.76wandun,tongbijianshao8.95wandun。

   juhaiguanshujuxianshi: 1-3yuefangzhipinfuzhuangleijichukou452.6yimeiyuan,tongbixiajiang17.71%,qizhongfangzhishaxian、zhiwujizhipinchukou226.9yimeiyuan,tongbixiajiang14.6%,fuzhuangjiyizhefujianchukou225.7yimeiyuan,tongbixiajiang20.6%。

   六、新疆完善目标价格政策,价格水平为每吨18600元

   3yue26ri,guojiafazhangaigewei、caizhengbufabuleguanyuwanshanmianhuamubiaojiagezhengcedetongzhi,weiguancheluoshi2020nianzhongyangyihaowenjianjingshen,jingguowuyuanpizhun,2020nianqizaixinjiangwanshanmianhuamubiaojiagezhengce,mubiaojiageshuipingweimeidun18600yuan,meisannianpingguyici,genjupinggujieguoshiqingkuangdiaozhengmubiaojiageshuiping。

中国棉花供求平衡表(20204月)单位: 万吨

年度

期初库存

产量

进口

消费

出口

期末库存

2019/20

807.51

590.57

198

765

3

828.08

2018/19

802.6

611

205

807

4.1

807.51

2017/18

924.1

604.7

132.4

855

3.59

802.61

 


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