棉花需求不振 内外棉价下跌——中国棉花形势月报(2020年3月)
ebet 3yue,guoneiyiqingzhuanhao,qiyeluxufugongfuchan,danguojiyiqingkuosandaozhiwaimaodingdanquxiaojiaoduo,mianhuaxiaofeixuqiubuzhen。juzhongguomianhuaxiehuiyuce,guoneimianhuaxiaofeiliangwei765wandun,tongbixiajiang5.2%,jiaoshangqijianshao17wandun,jinkouliang198wandun,tongbixiajiang3.4%,jiaoshangqizengjia10wandun。benyue,guoneiwaimianjiadafuxiadie,guojimianjiadiefugaoyuguonei;2019nianduchubeimianlunrujieshu,shijichengjiaoliang37.16wandun;3yuexiaxun,youguanbumengongbu2020nianqizaixinjiangwanshanmianhuamubiaojiagezhengce,shouciyingxiang,xinjiangzhimianyixiangmianjijiangfujixusuoxiao。
一、植棉意向降幅缩小
3yuedi,zhongguomianhuaxiehuijinxingledisici2020nianquanguozhimianyixiangmianjidiaocha,diaochajieguoweiquanguozhimianyixiangmianjiwei4618.26wanmu,tongbixiajiang4.10%,jiangfujiaoshangqisuoxiao0.93gebaifendian。qizhong: xinjiangzhimianyixiangmianjiwei3687.36wanmu,tongbixiajiang1.16%,jiangfujiaoshangqisuoxiao1.21gebaifendian;zhangjiangliuyuzhimianyixiangmianjiwei422.78wanmu,tongbixiajiang14.41%,jiangfujiaoshangqikuoda4.5gebaifendian;huangheliuyuzhimianyixiangmianjiwei511.78wanmu,tongbixiajiang13.52%,jiangfujiaoshangqikuoda2.5gebaifendian,youyumianhuashougoujiagebulixiang,gailiuyujin20%dezimianhaiweichushou。jiezhi3yuedi,quanguojiaoshoujindu98.61%,xinjiang、zhangjiangliuyujiaoshoujibenjieshu,huangheliuyujiaoshoujinduwei82.7%。
二、国内外棉价下跌
3yue,guoneiyiqingkongzhixianghao,guowaiyiqingkuosanmanyan,guojijinrongshichangdongdangjiaju,guoneiwaimianjiajunxiadie。yuemo,zhongguomianhuajiagezhishu(ccindex3128b)11091yuan/dun,jiaoshangyuemoxiadie1995yuan;yuejunjiawei12195yuan/dun,huanbixiadie1223yuan,tongbixiadie3385yuan。guojimianjiadafuxiadie,neiwaimianjiachajiaoshangyuesuoxiao。zhongguojinkoumianjiagezhishufc indexmyuejunwei69.34meifen/bang,huanbixiadie8.56meifen。yuemowei63.25meifen/bang,diyuqianyiyuemo9.8meifen/bang,1%guanshuixiazherenminbi10948yuan/dun,diyutongqiguoneixianhuo143yuan,jiachajiaoshangyuemosuoxiao537yuan。
三、储备棉轮入结束,成交率47%
3yuefenchubeimianlunrujihua31.6wandun,shijichengjiao20.75wandun,jiaoshanggeyuezengjia9.87wandun,chengjiaolv65.66%,jiaoshangyuezengjia10.13gebaifendian。pingjunchengjiaojiage 12644yuan/dun,jiao2yuefenjunjiaxiadie1072yuan/dun。3yue31ri,2019nianduchubeimianlunrujieshu,jihualunru50wandun,shijiguapaishuliang78.6wandun,shijichengjiaoliang37.16wandun,chengjiaolv47%。
四、商业库存降幅扩大
3yue,mianhuagouxiaoshichangzhujianhuifu,fangzhiqiyeyongmianxuqiuyousuohuisheng,danxiaofeirengruoyutongqi,yuemoshangyekucunjiangfujiaoshangyueyousuokuoda。3yuedi,quanguomianhuashangyekucunzongliangyue463.67wandun,huanbijiang6.76%,tongbizeng11.35%。suizheguoneifugongfuchanjindujiakuai,xinjiangmianchujiangfayunliangdafuhuisheng。jutongji,dangyuexinjiangmianhuazhuanyecangchukuchujiangfayunliangwei56.47wandun,huanbizengjia43.79wandun,gaoyuquniantongqi5.9wandun。
五、纺织需求不旺,纺织品服装出口下降
guoneiyiqingquwen,guojiyiqingjiasukuosan,waimaoxingfangzhiqiyeyingxiangjiaoda,fangzhipinchanlianghuanbishangsheng,dantongbirengxiajiang。qizhong,shaxianchanlianghuanbishangsheng43.3%,tongbixiajiang5.7%;buchanlianghuanbishangsheng41.3%,tongbixiajiang4.9%。qiyeyongmianxuqiubuwang,suiyongsuimai,yuanliaokucunyousuoxiajiang,jiezhi3yue31ri,fangzhiqiyemianhuakucunliangwei71.42wandun,jiaoshangyuedijianshao0.76wandun,tongbijianshao8.95wandun。
juhaiguanshujuxianshi: 1-3yuefangzhipinfuzhuangleijichukou452.6yimeiyuan,tongbixiajiang17.71%,qizhongfangzhishaxian、zhiwujizhipinchukou226.9yimeiyuan,tongbixiajiang14.6%,fuzhuangjiyizhefujianchukou225.7yimeiyuan,tongbixiajiang20.6%。
六、新疆完善目标价格政策,价格水平为每吨18600元
3yue26ri,guojiafazhangaigewei、caizhengbufabuleguanyuwanshanmianhuamubiaojiagezhengcedetongzhi,weiguancheluoshi2020nianzhongyangyihaowenjianjingshen,jingguowuyuanpizhun,2020nianqizaixinjiangwanshanmianhuamubiaojiagezhengce,mubiaojiageshuipingweimeidun18600yuan,meisannianpingguyici,genjupinggujieguoshiqingkuangdiaozhengmubiaojiageshuiping。
中国棉花供求平衡表(2020年4月)单位: 万吨
年度 | 期初库存 | 产量 | 进口 | 消费 | 出口 | 期末库存 |
2019/20 | 807.51 | 590.57 | 198 | 765 | 3 | 828.08 |
2018/19 | 802.6 | 611 | 205 | 807 | 4.1 | 807.51 |
2017/18 | 924.1 | 604.7 | 132.4 | 855 | 3.59 | 802.61 |